Water (in)security in a variable and changing climate

Bio:
Dr Anthony Kiem is a hydro-climatologist who has worked for more than 24 years on understanding and dealing with the drivers and impacts of climate variability and change in the Asia-Pacific region. Of particular interest are hydrological extremes and how these may change in the future. Anthony has extensive experience in characterising impacts of climate variability and change, seasonal/interannual forecasting, extreme event (e.g. flood, drought, bushfire etc.) risk analysis, hydrological modelling, stochastic modelling, and water resources management.
Abstract
The economic, environmental, and social impacts of water supply shortages and/or flooding threaten the fabric of urban and regional communities. The massive investment in water infrastructure following the Millennium drought (~1997-2010) and the 2020/2021/2022 flooding testifies to Australia’s risk aversion to such extremes.
Instrumental rainfall records in Australia only exist for the last ~120 years (i.e. since ~1900) at best and are typically available for less than ~70 years. Many existing studies demonstrate that this instrumental period is too short to obtain a realistic indication of the plausible range of hydroclimatic variability that is possible in Australia – meaning that the current and future risk of extreme hydrological events (e.g. prolonged drought or flood dominated epochs) is misrepresented, and strategies (i.e. policy and infrastructure) designed to mitigate those risks are likely sub-optimal.
Australia has experienced serious droughts and floods during the ~120 years covered by the instrumental record. However, to enable design and implementation of policy and infrastructure that ensures climate resilience, it is important to properly understand the chance of similar or worse droughts and floods happening again. This requires an understanding and quantification of the impacts of interannual to multidecadal hydroclimatic variability beyond what is possible from instrumental records alone.
This talk will show how hydroclimatic variability in the pre-instrumental past can be inferred from palaeoclimate proxies and how this is useful (and necessary) for properly preparing for the future. This talk will also discuss how this new science is being used to inform decision making that will provide significant benefits such as (i) reduced uncertainty about the optimal type, size, and timing of water storage and supply investments worth billions of dollars over the next 50 years and (ii) increased confidence in our ability to manage risks associated with droughts and floods.

Meeting at Scarborough Function Room 2